Has Russia's Economy Defied Expectations After a Year of Conflict? Unraveling the Enigma
By Shunying Liao
Over a year after the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia’s economy appears to be performing better than initially anticipated during the early months of war and sanctions. Official statements and data indicate that the country’s economic situation is on the path to recovery. Projections from the International Monetary Fund, Russian Ministry of Finance, and Economic Department all expect economic growth for the current year.
So far, the feared collapse of the Russian economy has not materialized. Analysts at TASS, based on UN member state statistics, reported that Russia’s inflation rate remains lower than that of Europe. Despite facing continued sanctions from the West, Russia’s current inflation rate ranks 50th in the world.
In contrast to the pessimistic forecasts from the previous spring, Russia’s domestic GDP only declined by 2.1% in 2022. Family expenditures decreased by 1.8%, while fixed asset investments grew by 5.2%.
Despite these positive signs, there are concerns about the recent significant depreciation of the Russian ruble against the euro, dollar, and yuan. This depreciation raises doubts about the sustainability of the country’s positive economic prospects until the end of the year and whether the risk of economic recession remains.
Last week, the Russian ruble experienced a sharp decline, depreciating over 6%. The USD exchange rate in Moscow Stock Exchange reached over 81 rubles, the highest since April 15, 2022. The unexpected devaluation contrasts with earlier expectations that such weakness would appear towards the end of the year.
The Central Bank of Russia attributes the ruble’s recent depreciation to a “bottoming out” of export revenues, which started declining at the beginning of the year. However, they emphasize that the recovery momentum will be smoother.
Most Russian economists share the view that the current ruble depreciation is due to a lack of foreign currency inflows and reduced income from oil and gas exports. They believe that the situation will improve in the coming months as foreign exchange inflows increase, aided by Russia’s adaptation to external sanctions in terms of the economy and commodity exports.
Economist Viktor Lashin added other contributing factors, including falling oil prices, foreign exchange market speculation, significant increases in budget expenditures, and an unstable balance of payments.
Despite the monthly strengthening of the national currency towards the end of each month, Lashin points out that the ruble’s price trend will be adjusted when exporters sell foreign currency during the tax period. This does not negate the existence of challenges, which may have a long-term impact on Russia’s economic security, making it vulnerable to external pressures and greatly weakening its position on the global stage.
Among the prominent threats, Lashin highlights low economic growth rates, high dependence on the energy sector, outdated industrial technology, inadequate investment, capital outflows, lack of innovation, imbalanced budget system, and significant regional disparities.
Lashin also warns that even under the best conditions of currency price stability, there is a possibility of the middle class deteriorating and an overall decline in societal and psychological well-being. He suggests that measures must be taken to address the crisis and the impact of sanctions, including ensuring alternative solutions represented by “friendly markets.”
To achieve sustainable growth and overcome challenges, the Russian government should consider supporting economic diversification, reducing reliance on the energy sector, encouraging innovation, strengthening international partnerships, and enhancing social welfare measures to ensure public well-being and stability.